{"id":2631,"date":"2025-09-03T21:09:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T01:09:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/?p=2631"},"modified":"2025-09-09T09:20:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T13:20:21","slug":"playing-with-chatgpt-firearm-availability-and-homicide-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/2025\/09\/03\/playing-with-chatgpt-firearm-availability-and-homicide-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Playing with ChatGPT &#8212; firearm availability and homicide rates&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>So, I&#8217;m playing around with ChatGPT.\u00a0 Since the recent church shootings resulted in libs pulling out their constant bete noir, of gun control, I thought I&#8217;d see if I could get it to chart number of guns in circulation versus homicide rate.\u00a0 It was interesting that ChatGPT could not download and analyze CDC WONDER data, so instead it had me download it and then upload it to ChatGPT for the graph.<\/p>\n<p>Here it is:Please recreate the graph, but only include whie homicide rate.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/firearms_vs_homicide_rates_1970_2023.pdf\" class=\"pdfemb-viewer\" style=\"\" data-width=\"max\" data-height=\"max\" data-toolbar=\"bottom\" data-toolbar-fixed=\"off\">firearms_vs_homicide_rates_1970_2023<\/a>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Three points shout out.<\/p>\n<p>First, there&#8217;s obviously no visual\u00a0 positive correlation between number of guns and homicide rates.\u00a0 In fact it&#8217;s negative\u00a0 \u00a0The calculated correlation coefficients are<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"144\" data-end=\"209\">\n<li data-start=\"144\" data-end=\"164\">\n<p data-start=\"146\" data-end=\"164\"><strong data-start=\"146\" data-end=\"155\">White<\/strong>: \u20130.75<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"165\" data-end=\"185\">\n<p data-start=\"167\" data-end=\"185\"><strong data-start=\"167\" data-end=\"176\">Black<\/strong>: \u20130.69<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"186\" data-end=\"209\">\n<p data-start=\"188\" data-end=\"209\"><strong data-start=\"188\" data-end=\"200\">Hispanic<\/strong>: \u20130.33<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Hmmm&#8230;.\u00a0 now, in most studies, an r of -.75 would be pretty spectacular.\u00a0 But, to the progs, it means the opposite of what one might reasonably infer.<\/p>\n<p>Second, &#8220;something&#8221; happened in 2020, and it wasn&#8217;t a surge in number of guns.\u00a0 Any ideas?\u00a0 Maybe some stunningly totalitarian policies promoted by the progs?<\/p>\n<p>Third, one has to wonder why the progs are sold that the &#8220;solution&#8221; is to take guns from the people in the green line&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Update:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In response to a comment from a colleague, I&#8217;ll point out that the Hispanic and White graphs have their own variability, you just can&#8217;t see them because the African American data sets the scale.\u00a0 Here is the White data with the homicide rate scaled from 3 to 7 rather than 3 to 45.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-2645\" src=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output-1024x507.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"341\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output-1024x507.png 1024w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output-768x381.png 768w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output-1536x761.png 1536w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output-2048x1015.png 2048w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/output-1600x793.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 688px) 100vw, 688px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And for Hispanics:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250909_091937.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-2649\" src=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250909_091937-1024x518.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250909_091937-1024x518.png 1024w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250909_091937-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250909_091937-768x388.png 768w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250909_091937.png 1478w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 688px) 100vw, 688px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s impressive how you can &#8220;prove almost anything in data like this with a well-chosen short time sample.\u00a0 The classic were the claims that the &#8220;assault weapon&#8221; ban of the 1990s &#8220;caused&#8221; a decrease in death.\u00a0 It didn&#8217;t, of course.\u00a0 The real cause?\u00a0 Few people know.\u00a0 It was the decline in atmospheric lead.\u00a0 It turns out that there is a big correlation between atmospheric lead concentration and viiolent crime, with a 22 year delay.\u00a0 Lead in gas was outlawed in the late 60s and early 70s, so crime dropped in the 90s.\u00a0 \u00a0Here&#8217;s an example for New Orleans:<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250907_190538.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-2646\" src=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250907_190538-1024x594.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"688\" height=\"399\" srcset=\"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250907_190538-1024x594.png 1024w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250907_190538-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250907_190538-768x445.png 768w, https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Screenshot_20250907_190538.png 1128w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 688px) 100vw, 688px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Mielke, H.W. and Zahran, S., 2012. The urban rise and fall of air lead (Pb) and the latent surge and retreat of societal violence. Environment international, 43, pp.48-55.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So, I&#8217;m playing around with ChatGPT.\u00a0 Since the recent church shootings resulted in libs pulling out their constant bete noir,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[92],"tags":[147,146],"class_list":["post-2631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-gun-control","tag-guns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2631","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2631"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2631\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2650,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2631\/revisions\/2650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2631"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2631"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/wordpress.forensicpath.us\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2631"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}